There is an average of seven or eight years for the life cycle of a car model in the industry. The carmakers usually take this time to replace an existing car to avoid big sales drop and keep the customers happy. During this period, the product goes through several phases that include the introduction, growth, maturity, and decline. The facelift usually comes at the maturity phase so the product can continue being “fresh” without a big investment.
Next year, several key cars in Europe and USA are turning seven and eight years old. They were introduced or revealed between 2015 and 2016 and are still available with good or bad sales results. Will we see a new generation soon?
The next generation BMW 5-Series should be among the most important presentations of the German maker. The current generation was revealed in October 2016, so the brand could be presenting or at least teasing its successor during the second half of 2023. The same happens to the Mini Clubman and Countryman, which will turn 8 and 7 years old in September and October 2023, respectively.
Although they announced that there won’t be a next generation of the Fiesta, this iconic hatchback will turn 7 years old in November 2023. In USA, the public is expected to see the successor of the Lincoln Nautilus, presented in January 2015 as the Lincoln MKX.
It is time to see whether Volvo will continue to offer its flagship sedan S90 as we know it or not. This beautiful sedan was presented in December 2015 and could follow the same fate of the XC90 with the recently revealed EX90. The same happens to the estate version, called V90, in the market since February 2016.
Cadillac is already late to replace the XT5, which turns 8 years old in November 2023. Chevrolet is not clear yet on whether it will replace the current Camaro, revealed in May 2015. It is also unclear about the future of the compact SUV Chevrolet Equinox, whose current generation has been with us since September 2016. The brand presented the EV version, so the petrol version could survive some more years.
The Hyundai Accent – Kia Rio couple is also getting old, and Hyundai should replace them at least in their most important markets. In Europe, the Hyundai i30 will turn seven in September 2023, and as a key model in the region, we should see some teasers of the next generation.
As it happens to the BMW 5-Series, its rival the next generation Mercedes E-Class is one of the most expected presentations of the brand in 2023. The current generation was presented in January 2016. We should also see the second generation of the Mercedes GLC Coupe after the introduction of the classic version this year.
There are three products that are due to change, but whose future is not clear: The Infiniti Q60, Nissan Maxima and Nissan Micra are at the decline phase of their life cycle, but it is unclear if the brand will continue offering these models, considering the dropping sales of coupes, saloons and hatchbacks. In contrast, we could see an all-new Titan for North America.
It is time for a new Scenic, but the brand won’t insist on MPVs. Meanwhile, the Koleos, presented in April 2016 is expected to be replaced by a larger version of the recently introduced Austral.
The group with the 14 brands has a lot of work. Although they are not expected any time soon, the Alfa Romeo Giulia and Stelvio will turn 8 and 7 years old respectively. The same happens to the Chrysler Pacifica (January 2016), whose restyling was introduced in February 2020, so it could continue some more years. More important is the case of the third generation Citroën C3, a big seller in Europe, and in the market since June 2016. Its successor could be one of the immediate priorities of the French brand.
Fiat is not expected to reveal anything new, but three of its models will turn 7-8: the Mobi and Toro in Brazil (since April 2016 and October 2015 respectively), and the Tipo, revealed in May 2015. After the restyling last year, the Jeep Compass is not expected to get an all-new generation anytime soon, despite the fact that the current generation was revealed in September 2016. More than a second generation, the Maserati Levante, which turns 7 years old in March, is due to get a deep restyling.
Finally, Peugeot’s priority should be the successor of the current 3008 and 5008, presented in September 2016.
One of the three products old enough to get a new generation is due to be in the news in 2023. The Jaguar F-Pace will turn 8 years old in September, and as a key product of the brand, we should see some hints of the upcoming new generation. It is pretty much not the case for the Jaguar XF, since March 2015, and the Land Rover Discovery, whose current generation was presented in September 2016.
No one is waiting for an all-new generation of the Model X (since September 2015) and the Model 3 (revealed in March 2016). The brand is expected to continue improving the existing models as it has done with the Model S since 2012.
A second generation of the Toyota C-HR is due to arrive in H1 2023, when the current one will turn 7 years old. Other more global models like the Hilux will turn 8 years old in May, so it could be the case of seeing an all-new generation soon, especially after the recent renewal of the Ford Ranger and Volkswagen Amarok. The same should happen to the American Tacoma, since January 2015.
The German maker has 15 models reaching the decline phase of their commercial life. Among the most important there are the Volkswagen Tiguan (since September 2015), Audi A4 (since June 2015), Audi Q5 (revealed in September 2016), and Porsche Panamera, whose second generation was revealed in June 2016. Others like the Audi Q7, Seat Ateca, Skoda Kodiaq, Skoda Superb, Volkswagen Atlas, and Porsche 718, are also expected to preview the models during the year.
The author of the article, Felipe Munoz, is an Automotive Industry Specialist at JATO Dynamics.